West Fargo, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for West Fargo ND
National Weather Service Forecast for:
West Fargo ND
Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Forks, ND |
Updated: 10:46 pm CDT Aug 13, 2025 |
|
Tonight
 Showers Likely
|
Thursday
 Breezy. Slight Chance T-storms then Sunny
|
Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms
|
Friday
 Mostly Sunny
|
Friday Night
 Chance T-storms
|
Saturday
 Partly Sunny
|
Saturday Night
 Partly Cloudy then Slight Chance T-storms
|
Sunday
 Chance T-storms
|
Sunday Night
 Chance Showers
|
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 86 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 63 °F |
Hi 79 °F |
Lo 63 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2am and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Thursday
|
A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Thursday Night
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 7 to 13 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. North northeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Friday Night
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East northeast wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Saturday Night
|
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. East southeast wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Sunday Night
|
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Monday
|
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Monday Night
|
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. |
Tuesday
|
Partly sunny, with a high near 76. East northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. |
Tuesday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming southeast after midnight. |
Wednesday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. South wind 6 to 10 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for West Fargo ND.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
660
FXUS63 KFGF 140302
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1002 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong thunderstorms expected tonight across
southeast North Dakota into Minnesota. The main hazard will
be lightning and hail to the size of quarters.
- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms late
afternoon into evening Thursday. The main hazards will be
gusty winds hail to the size of golf balls, gusts to 60 mph,
and possibly a couple tornadoes. Uncertainty lingers on
coverage of thunderstorms.
- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
Friday afternoon within southeast North Dakota into west-
central Minnesota.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Initial thunderstorm activity has developed into far southeast
ND (frequent lightning/heavy rain the main threats). The main
period of interest for our CWA will be later tonight as WAA
spreads north along with the LLJ and higher MUCAPE (1500-2500
J/KG). Trend is for an increase in coverage across the southern
RRV based on a consensus of CAMs and I increased PoPs
accordingly.
Due to marginal mid level lapse rates/narrower CAPE
profiles and weak mid level flow tendency will be for impacts to
be briefing heavy rain/lightning/smaller hail. There is enough
effective shear and CAPE tonight that isolated marginal severe
hail. Wind is harder to pin down with lower level inversion
advertised and less favorable low level lapse rates.
UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
WAA and a relatively weak LLJ will be focus for potential
thunderstorm initiation later this evening/overnight, with the
main warm front/baroclinic zone southwest of our region.
Skinny CAPE profiles with effective shear 25-30kt may support a
few stronger storms, though the overall severe risk is low.
Brief heavy rain, lightning, and small hail will be the most
likely threats, with a low chance for marginally severe hail
with stronger storms tonight (1"). Will continue to monitor
trends.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
...Synopsis...
Broad upper ridging is noted on water vapor satellite imagery,
with a low amplitude wave moving through eastern SD as well as
within northern WY into southern MT. These will aid in low level
jet/warm air advection induced scattered showers and storms
tonight in southeast ND into MN. There is enough shear and
instability to suggest hail up to the size of quarters will be
possible, but more likely sub-severe hail will be more
prevalent if hail arises.
...Severe storm potential Thursday and Friday...
Upper forcing for ascent increases over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest as upper troughing migrates eastward out of the
Canadian Rockies into central Prairie Provinces. At the surface,
a fairly progressive and stout cold front through the region,
including the Dakotas. While this combined with increasing
instability potentially greater than 3000 J/kg and effective
shear on the order of 30-45kt is driving the severe storm
potential, there are still important details that remain
uncertain. Uncertainties are mainly tied to the relationship
between degree of forcing and convective inhibition lowers
confidence in storm evolution. CAMs suggest enough convergence
and surface heating should minimize convective inhibition very
near the front, although there may still be a complicating
factor of dry air entrainment to limit initial updrafts from
sustaining themselves under a weakly forced regime, particularly
south of US Highway 2 corridor.
This opens up a range of possible outcomes ranging from isolated
discrete supercells along the cold front capable of all hazards
(including hail up to golf ball sized, potentially greater as
well as tornadoes), or more clusters of storms eventually
turning into more linear feature placing high wind and hail in
the forefront of most likely hazards (relatively greater
potential within northwest MN).
The evolution of convection as well as frontal placement will
dictate Friday`s severe storm potential. Should the front be
slow to move through the area, it could stall near the tri-state
area of the Dakotas and Minnesota. This would allow severe storm
to develop near this stalled front and perhaps eventual surface
cyclogenesis near the same area. Should this occur, all hazards
would again be possible. This is what is driving the level 1 out
of 5 risk for severe storms Friday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
VFR conditions are favored by guidance across eastern ND and
northwest MN through the TAF period, with the main aviation
impacts through tonight from scattered thunderstorms (mainly in
southeast ND/west central MN) and a 30-40kt LLJ developing after
08Z. Best chance for thunderstorms is at KFAR where a PROB30
group was introduced, and we will monitor trends/amend if
activity actually begins to develop in the 03-09Z window as some
guidance indicates.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|